Indian Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimates peg 2025-26 output at record high of 4.03 lakh tonnes

Excess monsoon weighs on crop prospects; final crop for 2024-25 seen at 3.63 lakh tonnes

India’s coffee output for the crop year 2025-26, starting October, is pegged at a record high of 4.03 lakh tonnes (lt) according to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimates. These initial projections are higher by around 11 per cent over the 2024-25’s final crop estimates of 3.63 lt.

The post-blossom estimates consist of arabicas of 1.18 lt, about 12 per cent higher than1.05 lt in the 2024-25 season. Robusta output is seen higher by 9.5 per cent at over 2.84 lt (2.57 lt as per final estimates of 2024-25).

Total output in the traditional growing areas comprising Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, is seen higher at 3.85 lt (3.46 lt). The arabica output is seen higher at 1.01 lt (90,550 tonnes) and Robusta at 2.84 lt (2.55 lt).

Weather woes

While the Board’s early output projections, based on the field survey carried out normally during May-June, point to a promising crop outlook, the excess and continuous rains during the past few months are seen as hurting the prospects. Excess and continuous rains had led to the early onset of black rot disease in the arabica variety and fruit rot in robusta, leading to fears of yield drop among the growers, mainly in Karnataka and Kerala.

The Board’s estimates look very optimistic, especially for arabicas. We don’t know if arabica will cross 1 lt. For robustas, there will certainly be a big difference between the post-blossom and post-monsoon, especially after a heavy and continuous monsoon this year” said Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman, UPASI Coffee Committee.

Estimates look very high, especially for arabica. Don’t know if arabica will cross 95,000-98,000 tonnes. In robusta also, there will surely be a big difference between post-blossom and post-monsoon after a heavy and continuous monsoon with high infestation of black rot and no proper pollination as flowering was at the same time across all regions,” said M Salman Baseer, vice-chairman, Karnataka Planters Association.

In the largest producing State, Karnataka, the total output is seen higher at 2.80 lt(2.56 lt). Arabica output in Karnataka is seen higher at 84,925 tonnes (74,700 tonnes), while robusta crop is projected at 1.95 lt (1.87 lt).

State-wise estimate

In Karnataka’s Kodagu, the largest coffee producing district in the country, output is projected to increase to 1.30 lt (1.21 lt), while in Chikkamagalur district it is expected to rise to 1.04 lt (91,400 tonnes). In Hassan district, the coffee production is forecast to rise to 45,175 tonnes (43,000 tonnes)

In Kerala, the arabica output is projected to increase to 2,150 tonnes (2,000 tonnes) and robusta to 83,000 tonnes (70,950 tonnes). Total output in Kerala is estimated higher at 85,150 tonnes (72,950 tonnes).

In Tamil Nadu, the arabica output is projected marginally higher at 13,955 tonnes (13,850 tonnes) and robusta at 6,360 tonnes (5,425 tonnes). Total output in Tamil Nadu is seen higher at 20,315 tonnes (19,275 tonnes).

In the non-traditional areas comprising of Andhra and Odisha, the arabica output is projected at 16,980 tonnes (15,060 tonnes) and robusta at 70 tonnes (40 tonnes). Also in the North Eastern Region, the output is estimated marginally higher at 115 tonnes (90 tonnes) and robusta at 95 tonnes (85 tonnes).